Ask a room of founders what seed rounds are “going for” right now and you’ll hear wildly different numbers. They’re not all wrong. The data says seed has split into two markets, with two very different prices.
Let’s look at both, at two companies that went through the split this week in opposite ways, and at what decides which price you’re quoted. (Spoiler: it’s less about your deck than you’d hope.)
The Middle Cooled
Wilson Sonsini’s Entrepreneurs Report for Q2 2026 (published September 3, covering deals the firm worked on) shows the typical seed price coming down:
- Median seed pre-money valuation fell to $23.0 million, from $35.0 million in Q1 2026.
- Median Series A pre-money rose to $80.0 million.
- The median SAFE raise fell to $240,000 in Q2, from $610,000 in Q1.
- The median SAFE valuation cap was $15.0 million in H1 2026, down from $20.0 million in 2025.
Wilson Sonsini says the seed drop “may suggest some investors are refocusing on non-AI-driven investments with traditionally lower valuations.”
The Top Went Vertical
Carta’s data (published July 8) tells the other half of the story. The 95th-percentile seed valuation on Carta, measured post-money, reached $200.4 million in Q2 2026, up from $72.2 million in Q2 2025. Carta calls that “up 177%,” the fastest climb in its decade of data. In the 2020–21 frenzy, the same benchmark rose 92% in 12 months.
A quick but important note: Wilson Sonsini’s $23 million is a pre-money median from its own deals. Carta’s $200.4 million is a post-money percentile from Carta customers. They’re separate benchmarks, so don’t divide one by the other. Read them side by side as a picture of the spread.
Carta’s August 25 data adds two more signals:
- In Q1 2026, the 90th-percentile seed valuation was nearly 4x the median, and at Series A, top-decile valuations were nearly 5x the median.
- SAFEs larger than $2.5 million carried a median cap of $35 million in Q2 2026, up 40% year over year, with the 75th percentile “approaching $60 million.” SAFEs are now 93% of pre-seed rounds, and 91% of SAFEs are post-money.
Big instruments are pricing up. Small ones are pricing down.
The Market Underneath
Crunchbase’s North America Q3 report (October 7, preliminary data) found at least $5 billion in seed, angel and pre-seed funding for U.S. and Canadian startups, “a bit below both the prior quarter and year-ago comps.” Crunchbase expects that total to rise as late deals come in. The biggest seed rounds were Walden Robotics at $300 million and Veeda AI at $90 million.
Cooley’s Q2 report (August 17) shows protective terms creeping back across all stages: down rounds rose to 12.1%, flat rounds to 4.3%, and pay-to-play provisions to 8.4% of deals. Terms are still mostly company-friendly, with 95.8% of deals carrying a 1x liquidation preference.
What Decides Your Price: Who Brings the Round
Here’s the most useful data point of the week for anyone raising.
AngelList’s September 18 research essay looked at 2025 seed deals on AngelList:
- Rounds founders started themselves (Roll-Up Vehicles): median starting pre-money of $10 million, and only 26% ever wired.
- Rounds brought by a third-party deal lead, after the lead selected and diligenced the company: median starting pre-money of $20 million, and 65% wired.
- Among rounds that closed, both groups had the same $25 million median pre-money.
To be clear about what this does and doesn’t show: it’s AngelList’s 2025 seed deals only, and it compares founder-started vehicles with lead-brought vehicles. It isn’t a study of warm intros versus cold outreach. What it does show is that an established lead putting their name on a round was tied to a higher starting price and a much higher close rate. AngelList’s framing: seed skill may be about being “the person whose participation changes other investors’ behavior.”
Two Companies, Two Ways Through
Tab: The Top of the Distribution
On October 6, consumer AI assistant Tab emerged from stealth at a $300 million valuation. It declined to share how much it raised. Users text Tab on iMessage or WhatsApp, and it books, orders, calls and pays for them. Investors include SV Angel, Valar Ventures and American Spirit. The product is in private beta behind a waitlist (Tech Funding News), and co-founder Ammar Amdani says it’s growing “mostly by word of mouth.”
Per Tech Funding News, co-founder Brennan Erbz was an early machine-learning engineer at Snap who founded Hashletes and went through Y Combinator (details TFN attributes to the company), and Amdani previously co-founded Adapt Ventures. With no public traction, backer names and founder networks are carrying much of the price. Amdani’s pitch: “Capability is table stakes. Trust is the product.”
Noah: Extending Instead of Repricing
On October 7, London stablecoin-payments company Noah announced a $16 million seed extension rather than a new priced round. That brought total seed funding to $38 million, after $22 million in 2025. Endeit Capital, FJ Labs, LocalGlobe and Felix Capital participated, and three of those four funds also backed its 2025 seed. The company says it signed 150+ new customers in 2026, grew revenue 31% month over month, and is up 538% year to date in revenue (all company claims). No valuation was disclosed.
Extensions like this are a normal tool. Wilson Sonsini’s median post-seed convertible note was $3.0 million in Q1 2026 and $2.0 million in Q2.
How to Price Your Seed Round Without Getting Burned
- Benchmark against the median. As VC Cafe’s Eze Vidra put it on October 1, “top-decile pricing is not a reasonable anchor for most companies.” A price you can grow into protects your Series A.
- Watch your ownership. Carta’s March 12 report puts median founder ownership at about 56% after seed and 36% after the Series A, based on 2021–2025 rounds.
- Find your lead first. Identify the investor whose yes moves the others before you negotiate valuation.
- Extend from strength. If you extend, do it with backers who already have conviction, and read terms like pay-to-play closely.
- Model, test, adjust. Test your price and your lead with a few trusted investors before you go wide.
GPs, the middle of the distribution is where entry prices are sane, and being the catalyst lead is an edge LPs can verify by looking at who co-invests behind you.
Your Valuation Is Set by Who Stands Behind You
Pedigree, proximity, a pre-launch $300 million price, an insider extension: they all point back to one thing. Investors price trust.
The good news is that trust paths are visible. SEC Form D filings list related persons on a financing, Form ADV describes advisers and affiliates, and IRS 990s and business registries show where investors overlap. ConnectLab.live maps those paths so you can find the second-degree route to the lead who moves the rest of the round.
Connection is the currency of the 21st Century, and at seed it’s a partnership: the right lead and the right founder build each other’s track record.
What would change in your raise if you found your lead before you named your price?
If you’d like help building that path, here’s an open invitation:
- Founders: sign up for ConnectLab’s connection system for founders at https://connectlab.live/founder
- Fund managers: email ken@connectlab.live to claim your fund on ConnectLab, so founders and co-investors can see who you back.
All the best,
Ken McArthur
Best-Selling Author and Producer