Proof Positive: It’s Good to be Statistically Optimistic! 18

In Poker, your odds of getting a Royal Flush are 649,739  to 1.

Sounds like a long shot, but there are 525 948.766 minutes in a year so statistically if you are dealt cards at a rate of one per minute you would get your royal flush within less than 1.3 years.

That’s what hanging in there gets for you.

Or you could just work twice as fast and get it done in half the time — If you could survive it.

That’s what working harder does for you.

Or …

If you team up with 100 of your friends you can get one dealt in 3.65 days.

That’s what joint venturing does for you.

Any way you work it, I’m convinced statistically speaking …

“If you want life to come up “heads” and all you get is “tails,”  you need to keep flipping the coin.” – Ken McArthur

Eventually, things come up the way you want.

Notice I didn’t say …  Wait for things to get better!

In business, your odds of success are better.

According to U.S Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Business Dynamics Statistics …

Seven out of ten new employer firms last at least two years, and about half survive five years. More specifically, according to new Census data, 69 percent of new employer establishments born to new firms in 2000 survived at least two years, and 51 percent survived five or more years. Firms born in 1990 had very similar survival rates. With most firms starting small, 99.8 percent of the new employer establishments were started by small firms. Survival rates were similar across states and major industries.

Compare that to the average length of a job …

Three to five years with jobs held between the ages of 18 and 38 having the shortest duration
(source America’s Dynamic workforce: 2006; U.S. Department of Labor)

So I’m Statistically Optimistic.

Odds are …

  • 4 out of 5 you will NEVER die of Heart Disease
  • 6 out of 7 you will NEVER die of Cancer
  • 22 out of 23 you will NEVER die of  Stroke
  • 35 out of 36 you will NEVER die of Accidental Injury
  • 99 out of 100 you will NEVER die of a Motor Vehicle Accident
  • 120 out of 121  you will NEVER commit suicide
  • 324 out of 325 you will NEVER die as a result of Fire or Smoke
  • 1,115 out of 1,116 you will never die of Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.)

And if you keep trying, keep learning and focus on solving real problems …

Odds are … you can have your own successful business.

All the best,

Ken McArthur

SpeakUpSaveLives.org
TheImpactFactor.com
KenMcArthur.com
jvAlertLive.com

About Ken McArthur

Ken McArthur is the founder of ConnectLab.live, an AI relationship-intelligence and warm-intro platform that helps founders who are raising find the funds that fit and the people who can introduce them, and helps fund managers connect with the founders they back. He was recently accepted into Harvard Business School Foundry. He also writes Raise Smarter, a daily newsletter on what's really moving in early-stage fundraising. Ken challenges us to realize we ALL have an impact, whether we want to or not, on thousands of people we touch in our day-to-day lives, and he shows that simple things make a HUGE difference. ConnectLab.live grew out of that belief. Connection is the currency of the 21st Century, and the right introduction can change a company's future. Long before ConnectLab, Ken was the popular host of live events that brought together top-level marketers, entrepreneurs, business owners, corporations and non-profit organizations to build multi-million dollar joint venture relationships. He has managed product launches ranked in the top 400 sites on the Internet and is regularly asked to speak at leading marketing events. He created AffiliateShowcase.com, a pioneering affiliate program search engine and directory. He also founded the MBS Internet Research Center, which conducted the world's largest survey ever attempted on creating and launching successful information products. Ken was the official mentor for Sterling Valentine as he took his launch from zero to over $100,000 in less than 8 days, a proof of concept documented in Info Product Blueprint. Today he puts that same skill for connecting people and launching ideas to work for founders and the investors who back them.

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18 thoughts on “Proof Positive: It’s Good to be Statistically Optimistic!”

  • SaRita Hartin

    Awesome way to look at things, Ken! It’s nice to see a positive viewpoint. Thank you for the reminder that circumstances are what I make of them — both in perception and in ACTION.

    Have a fantastic day!

  • Andy

    Hi Kenneth,

    What a great way to look at it! I’ve done something similar in a negative way i.e. a 5% conversion rate means 95 out of 100 are walking away, but I never thought to see those “mortality rates” from your perspective. Maybe they should be immortality rates?

    BTW… does “324 out of 325 you will NEVER die as a result of Fire or Smoke” include second hand smoke?

    Regards,

    Andy

  • Don Child

    Thanks for putting things in perspective, Ken. Isn’t networking just amazing … how quickly one can overcome the odds compared to opening a new store on mainstreet and waiting for foot traffic. And I love your statistics. I’m an optimist as well, and may just borrow the stats, with attribution, of course.

  • Paul Barrs

    Ah yes, very nice. And the odds are that if you keep persisting success will come more likely than not.

    I once developed a computer program that played with random chance at the ‘coin toss” – my goal was to see just how many ‘tosses’ it would take to get 10 x heads in a row.

    Did it ever happen? Yes. The highest number of cumulative tosses before it happened was over 8,000. The lowest – 56!!

    Proof of the point; chance favors the prepared mind.

    – Paul

  • Larry

    Love the way you think Ken–
    hope to see you again soon.
    I’m reminded of the premise behind Seth Godin’s little manifesto (Brainwashed) you refer to occasionally.
    Do Work That Matters
    1.) Connect
    2.) Be Generous
    3.) Make Art
    4.) Acknowledge the lizard brain
    5.) Ship
    6.) Fail
    7.)Learn

    Thanks for the uplifting reminders,
    all the best in all your efforts,
    Larry

  • Joe Jablonski

    Very true Ken and well stated.

    A great person who never gave up and stayed
    optimistic learned from his failures quoted this.

    Success is 99% failure.
    ~ quote by Soichiro Honda

    Thanks for sharing Ken.

    ~ Joe Jablonski

  • Micheal Savoie

    Waiting for things to get better is likely to get you more of what you are waiting to get away from… the root cause of the bad times for most businesses is the unpreparedness for changing trends and not doing the things that can increase your business.

    That is why getting around people who are succeeding is crucial to the average business person. Unless you hear what is working for others, and see the results of perseverance, you are unlikely to take the action that could save your business.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for letting us know that you are willing to flip that coin for one more day….as I imagine you safely careening towards JvAlert having arranged an all-star extravaganza, a tower of talent at your Orlando destination.

    I anticipate magic, marketing and momentum to happen in one building in one weekend.

    Please bring back what you need and I look forward to reading and watching this landmark event in your life’s work.

    The Very Best!