
If you only read the headlines, venture fundraising looks healthy. US venture funds raised $108.5 billion through September 2026, according to the Q3 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor. But if you’re raising a first fund, or pitching one, the picture looks very different. Here’s what the data says, who is actually anchoring new funds, and what both fund managers and founders can do with that.
What the Q3 data says
The Venture Monitor’s numbers on emerging managers are stark:
- Firms raising their fourth fund or later captured 88.2% of US venture fundraising dollars through Q3 2026.
- First-time funds captured about 4.5%. Just 81 closed, putting the year on pace for the lowest first-time fund count in a decade.
- The number of distinct emerging firms that closed at least one US fund fell from 927 in 2022 to 440 in 2025 to 211 through Q3 2026.
The report connects this to LPs’ preference for established, name-brand managers, which it says “largely reflects liquidity constraints that have persisted for a couple of years now.”
Who backs the funds that still close
Murph Capital’s State of VC Fundraising: Q3 2026 (October 15) looked at 152 fund closes announced worldwide in the quarter. That’s a different dataset from the Venture Monitor (global, and only publicly announced closes), so read the two side by side, not added together.
- 86 debut or sophomore funds under $250 million raised $4.23 billion: about 9% of the quarter’s capital on 57% of the fund count. Their median close fell to $31 million from $55 million in Q2.
- Of the 83 funds that named at least one LP, development finance institutions appeared on 41, the most common LP type. Only 4 of 87 DFI mentions were on US funds.
- 24 of 32 founder and celebrity LP mentions sat on just 4 debut funds, each using a founder network as its anchor.
- Of 351 named LPs, only 16 backed more than one fund.
The pattern: new funds aren’t being carried by a few big repeat allocators. They’re anchored by people and institutions with a specific reason to back that specific manager.
Two first closes from October
Marin Sonoma Impact Ventures (MSIV). On October 8, MSIV announced the final close of Fund II at more than $11 million from 60 LPs. Ninety-eight percent of the money came from Marin and Sonoma residents or institutions, a majority of Fund I’s largest LPs reinvested, and the Redwood Credit Union Community Fund committed $1 million. MSIV now manages over $17.7 million, has backed 22 North Bay startups, and says its founder network has supported 438 local founders.
NVM Ventures. On October 6, the Italian firm announced a €23.6 million first close for NVM Venture Lazio, against a €35 million target. Lazio Innova committed €18.83 million, about four-fifths of the close, through the Lazio Region’s fund of funds. The fund plans 10 to 15 pre-seed and seed dual-use deeptech investments, and its disclosures require target companies to be headquartered in Lazio or have a significant operational presence there.
Both sets of figures are fund-reported.
Not all anchors work the same way
Public money comes with its own rules. In First Close (October 15), Itzel Moncada contrasted Malaysia’s Jelawang Capital, which caps its commitment at 30% of any fund in its emerging-manager program, with Lazio Innova’s roughly 80% share of NVM’s first close: “two different theories of what public money is for.” One leaves you raising most of the fund elsewhere. The other gets you to a first close but ties the fund to a region.
What GPs can do now
- Map your natural anchors first. Regional programs, founder networks, local institutions and your existing LPs. These are the people with a reason to say yes.
- Learn the terms before you pitch public LPs. Ask about commitment caps and geographic requirements, then model your raise around them.
- Build Fund II during Fund I. Murph Capital notes Vermilion Cliffs Ventures raised its $25 million Fund II in about four months, mostly from existing LPs. Honest, regular reporting is fundraising.
- Lead with your network, not your brand. Omni Ventures pitched “a network of 32,000+ industry contacts rather than a brand.” In a market this concentrated, that’s the honest pitch for most emerging managers.
What founders can do now
- Read a fund’s LP list before you pitch. Anchors shape mandates. A regionally anchored fund may be required to invest where you are.
- Don’t overlook local funds. They rarely make national news, but backing founders like you is the reason they exist.
- Ask how the GP raised. Returning LPs say something about how a manager treats relationships, and you’ll be in one with them for years.
The people who already know you
There’s a lesson here that goes beyond fund math. When money gets scarce, it flows through trust, and trust gets built before you ask. That’s true for a GP raising Fund I and for a founder raising a pre-seed round. Your first anchor is usually someone who’s already watched you work.
Connection is the currency of the 21st Century.
If you’d like help finding those paths, here’s an open invitation:
- Founders: map your warm paths to investors, including local and regional funds, at https://connectlab.live/founders
- Fund managers: claim your fund on ConnectLab so the right founders can find you at https://connectlab.live/join/funds
- Subscribe to Raise Smarter for daily fundraising signals: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/raise-smarter-7514657628552183808/
Sources: PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor Q3 2026; Murph Capital, State of VC Fundraising: Q3 2026; MSIV and The Press Democrat; Tech.eu and NVM Venture Lazio disclosures; First Close No. 13. Links below.
Sources
- NVCA, PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor summary (Q3 2026, Oct 2026): https://nvca.org/pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor/
- PitchBook-NVCA, Q3 2026 Venture Monitor (PDF, data as of Sept 30, 2026): https://nvca.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Q3-2026-PitchBook-NVCA-Venture-Monitor.pdf
- PitchBook report page: https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2026-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor
- Murph Capital (Pavel Prata, Vlad Kyivskyi), “State of VC Fundraising: Q3 2026” (Oct 15, 2026): https://murphcapital.substack.com/p/state-of-vc-fundraising-q3-2026
- Dr. Itzel Moncada, First Close No. 13 (Oct 15, 2026): https://itzelmoncadavc.substack.com/p/whats-left-of-the-emerging-cohort
- Marin Sonoma Impact Ventures, “MSIV Fund II Raises Over $11 Million” (Oct 8, 2026): https://www.msivfund.com/news/marin-sonoma-impact-ventures-msiv-fund-ii-raises-over-11-million-dollars-to-back-north-bay-area-startups
- The Press Democrat, “Marin Sonoma Impact Ventures raises $11M in second fund for startups” (Oct 8, 2026): https://www.pressdemocrat.com/2026/10/08/marin-sonoma-impact-ventures-11-million-second-startup-fund/
- Tech.eu, “Nevermind VC launches with €23.6M first close to back dual-use deeptech startups” (Oct 6, 2026): https://tech.eu/2026/10/06/nevermind-launches-with-eur236m-first-close-to-back-dual-use-deeptech-startups/
- NATAM, NVM Venture Lazio fund disclosure page (updated Oct 6, 2026): https://www.natam.lu/en/VentureLazio
